Betting underdogs in MLB is possibly one of the easiest and funnest bets to make year in and year out. Many systems that you can build off of to find your profits!
Underdog systems in MLB have been around forever. Some of them are pretty well known and will have periods of success although not totally sustainable. I am going to talk about one of the oldest and most popular ones here in minute. Tell a little about how I modified it to create my underdog plays I have consistently won serious coin on over last few years on bases.
Okay I obviously can't or won't take credit for creating this system because I first read this years ago on a website, I cant even remember anymore. It was a simple underdog system the author claimed that in 5 minutes of capping you could profit from baseball year in year out.
Works like this, First eliminate any Dog more that +150. Then look at remaining Dogs and make sure they haven't lost 3 games in a row. If they have they to are eliminated. After that check to see if their opponent (the favorite) has won 3 in a row, If so eliminate that dog also. Next and final step of this system is look at pitcher for the favorite and make sure he is not in the top 10 of his perspective league. He talked about using Sarigin ratings I believe. If the pitcher was eliminate them. If ya passed those test play the dog without question.
Simple system. Based on the fact that every baseball team will basically lose 60 games. Win 60 games. These criteria help to eliminate some of the loses so you could cash more bets. Well it made sense to me so I tried it out. Did pretty well honestly. There were guys who tracked it on covers and stuff talking about holes in the system and all kinds of shit. This falls right back into the fact that unless you win every day and gain 20 units a week 97% of the monkeys out there think it isn't winning. It did win for me. Made betting baseball fun for me. Seemed to be about 4-6 games to bet most days. A good amount of action and hit about 50%. I do endorse it as written.
So after following for a bit I tweaked it in several ways to make it a lot better. 59-51 +19.01 so far into this very young MLB season. Nice profits the last two summers also. Now I will not give ya my exact criteria because it is MINE but instead I will talk about possible tweaks.
+150 rule. I personally like this number. For my dogs I use it. I think you could go higher or lower by a bit. You can use opening lines or current lines. Up to you really.
3/3 rule. This one isn't something I think can or should be messed with. Have heard of guys looking at home and away 3/3 rules. I just personally like the way it is written here. Three games in either direction catches them teams before the big runs or collapses. Have also talked to guys who do some number of past 10 either way. I do stick with the original 3/3 rule.
Pitchers.... This is where ya can go literally thousands of different ways with them. There are hundreds of sites that rank pitchers with their own criteria and probably by amount of facial hair they have that week. You could use any one of them. You can use some combination of stats. (That is what I actually do). There might possibly be no end of the list of stats you could use. And then you must decide if you will use career , season, Last 5 , Last 10 or stats when lightning strikes within 100 miles of baseball stadium within one week of that current game. The point is the choices are there. Don't over complicate it but experiment to find your thing. Track various different ones to find a nice consistent winner. Remember your building this for next 30 years. Not to win millions by September. If ya want that spend you money on lottery tickets.
Now I also added a feature to mine where I compare to my computer generated lines. That may not be for everybody and honestly doesn't need to. If the Computer picks the fav I wont go against it. I usually need 5 points of perceived advantage to jump. You can get all kinds of computer generated picks all over the internet some for free and some cost ya a little.
So if I can fit those into a dog I am a go. These are one plays I make that I never look into the betting market, injury reports, weather. I don't call AL in Vegas to make sure the mob has the fix in. I just roll them. They are fun and stress free. Sometimes I wish I could let everything else I do for baseball season go and just bet these. Would take about 3 minutes a day but the greed is just to much. SMH. So I continue to play the other type of plays also. Maybe more on them another time.
So go ahead and work on your own underdog system. Track it, let me know how it does. Got a question just ask. I will do my best to help ya out. I love to talk about betting. Follow along with me this season while ya develop you wining systems. Have a great day, week, season. Scott.
|love the article man, im a freak for betting systems/strategies, always trying out diffrent stuff. im going to give this dog system a go tonight!! Oblivion Sports about 1 month ago|
|5/6 winners last night on that system!!, :D . gonna go again tonight Oblivion Sports about 1 month ago|