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It's almost the All-Star break and this is when teams will shake out as buyers or seller, as well as know that there season is essentially over.

That can make it difficult on a short-term daily basis and for that reason we should look at the longer term options sooner rather than later.

If we sorted the NL playoffs right now we'd likely have three "new" teams in the mix, or at least teams that haven't been overly relevant for some time. The Brewers would win the NL Central and one or both of Arizona and Colorado would be Wild Card teams.

Here are their respective odds at the best numbers I can find quickly:

Arizona Bovada +1250
Colorado 5Dimes +1550
Milwaukee BetOnline +6600

As we talked about when we looked at College Football Futures, it's not always about cashing the big plus-money bet and turning a little into a lot. It's about creating equity and being in position to insure a profit later on down the road. We also don't want the books holding our money for months on end without some reasonable expectation of a return.

If we were to put a unit on each of these three it's quite likely at this point at least two of them are in the Playoffs, and that's all we're looking for. Ideally we'd have two of these teams playing one another and that would assure us at least one of them being in the NLCS. At that point, we would...


AGREE 469K DISAGREE



Fire
Vote Hot


Texas Rangers (+160.0) at Cleveland Indians (-160.0) over +10.5

Game time: Tuesday 6/27, 7:10 PM

Texas Rangers 2 FINAL
Cleveland Indians 1  view game

Over (+10.0) L

$150.00 Pick documented: Tuesday, 27 Jun 2017 12:56 PM

pick locked in 24 days ago

Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Indians Pick

This was an easy bet to make. Working backwards, it's entirely possibly that the downtrodden Rangers' bullpen gives up this many. At one time I liked Tyson Ross - he was great at keeping the ball down and in the park. I thought after his first outing he might be back to some semblance of his former self, but after the Toronto game, it appears not. And of course we'd like both teams to...

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It won't be long now until we start discussing the strength of schedules and the merits of who should and shouldn't be in the Playoffs for the CFB Championship. But, maybe we should be talking about it now if we're going to bet on it. Here is a list of the ten favorites, taken from 5Dimes today.

Alabama +340
Florida State +625
Ohio State +750
Southern Cal +775
Oklahoma +1000
Michigan +1550
LSU +2000
Louisville +2200
Penn State +2500
Auburn +3000

Noticeably absent from that list is last years' Champion, Clemson. Personally, I am buying some Tigers at 33:1 simply because they've got Auburn at home and then Louisville on the road. If they win those two game that 33:1 price will be long gone and they should lose another game until they play FSU, and that's at home. So they've got three games against teams with better odds, and although they don't publicly talk about it, they know it.

Alabama is never going to get more expensive, and at that price you have to ask yourself if it's worth letting a book hold your money for over six months. Typically the answer is no. Now, if they lose the opener to FSU then FSU has the inside shot as far as odds are concerned, so THEN maybe you buy some Tide. Not the detergent, the football team. And because FSU plays Alabama, if they win they won't be around at that price for more...


We talked at length about the majority of the betting favorites to win the Championship this upcoming season, and now let's look at some longer shots that might offer value. Remember, we're not always looking for these teams to win, but rather put us in position to hedge and at least come out profitable.

One thing to bear in mind is where the game is played, and this year it will be in New Orleans. The significance of that cannot be overstated for the simple fact that the game is indoors and on turf. That will clearly favor teams that have more team speed.

One Conference we slighted earlier is the Pac-12. Obviously someone is going to win it, and that team is likely a one or two loss team that will get consideration. Washington (+3300) and UCLA (+6600) are the two teams from the Pac-12 with the highest odds after USC, but I think we can eliminate UCLA simply because they play in the South division with USC, Colorado, and Utah. Washington's path to the title game is going to be considerably easier, and the Huskies are probably the most well-coached team out there. Add to that the fact that since Peterson has taken over they've put a huge emphasis on recruiting speed.

The Huskies...


AGREE 985 DISAGREE



Fire
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San Diego Padres (+145.0) at Arizona Diamondbacks (-145.0) over +8.5

Game time: Tuesday 6/6, 9:40 PM

San Diego Padres 2 FINAL
Arizona Diamondbacks 10  view game

San Diego Padres (+1.5) L

$150.00 Pick documented: Monday, 05 Jun 2017 5:14 PM

pick locked in about 1 month ago




Saturday MLB Free Plays

It's time to give back to society and share some of the work.

Arizona/Miami: My first thought is that Miami saw plenty of Delgado when he was with Atlanta, and although they didn't see as much of him as I'd thought, most Marlin sticks have hit him. At the very least that precludes me from taking Arizona, which is only magnified by the fact that he hasn't thrown more than five innings in some time. Backing Volquez is also not the easiest bet to make, especially with Goldschmit being 7-14 off of him.
The Bet: OVER 8.5
Cubs/Cardinals: Leake has his first marginal start this season last outing, but I might attribute some of that as being the second straight start against a hot Dodgers' lineup. However, he lost to the Cubs earlier this season (3-2) and many of the Cubs sticks have done some damage against him. Lester was also mauled by the Dodgers in his last start, but he's had great success and is in revenge mode for an earlier loss to St. Louis, and of course at home. I'm but sure anyone is worth -160 to Leake, but I do think the Cubs get this done.
The Bet: Cubs -160
Dodgers/Brewers: It's hard to fathom Rich Hill being -150 on the road....


AGREE 1.01K DISAGREE



Fire
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Colorado Rockies (-103.0) at San Diego Padres (+103.0) over +8.0

Game time: Saturday 6/3, 4:10 PM

Colorado Rockies 10 FINAL
San Diego Padres 1  view game

San Diego Padres (+1.5) L

$150.00 Pick documented: Saturday, 03 Jun 2017 10:05 AM

pick locked in about 1 month ago




The rematch of the rematch is about to begin, and there is not much anyone can say that's going to sway anyone one way or another. It's just like the Super Bowl. There is so much attention being paid to who is going to win and why that finding an edge from game-to-game is difficult. There are no surprises, and neither team is going to change what they do.

But there are, just like the Super Bowl, other ways to make money. Let's look at some of the props that I think offer some value in game one.

Kevin Love UNDER 10.5 Rebounds: He had 10 or more in every game against the Celtics, so people might like the over. Two things. First, Golden State doesn't miss as often as Boston so there are less opportunities. Secondly, the Warriors misses tend to create more longer rebounds since they shoot from behind the arc so often.

Kyrie Irving OVER 3 Rebounds: See above. There are more longer rebounds to grab. He had five twice in the series against the Raptors.

Steph Curry OVER 6 Assists: When he gets six or more assists the Warriors win. It's not always about his points, and he just has more weapons this season.

Kevin Durant UNDER 4.5 Assists: He's played 101 Playoff games and averages 3.7 assists per game. He did not have more than...


AGREE 4.83K DISAGREE



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Los Angeles Dodgers (-115.0) at St. Louis Cardinals (+115.0) over +8.0

Game time: Tuesday 5/30, 7:05 PM

Los Angeles Dodgers 9 FINAL
St. Louis Cardinals 4  view game

Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline (-116.0) WIN WIN WIN Ticket Cashes $279.31

$150.00 Pick documented: Tuesday, 30 May 2017 1:23 PM

pick locked in about 1 month ago




If you handicap on a daily basis then it's probable that you follow the betting markets closely. That can be a double-edged sword if you are what I call "caught in between." ​Any serious bettor does their homework well in advance, but may not pull the trigger right away. They might be waiting for a better number, or looking for confirmation from the market, or simply not 100% committed.

Then you've got a lean in a particular direction, and what happens is the market ends up going the other way. Now what? Should we trust the work, follow the market, or pass? If you trust the work and you are wrong, that is frustrating. If you follow the market, hence flip from you original position, often times you were right in the first place. It's tough at times, but I have always maintained and advised people that on a given day you've got to do one of two things. You have to follow ALL the significant market moves or NONE of them. Trying to pick and choose is perhaps one of the most lethal things we can do, and on top of that it will throw off your thought processes going forward.

So, make a commitment to do one or the other. And with that, a play I really like today:

Pirates/Mets OVER 8 Runs

Many will want to know how and why I came to that conclusion, and it's...


AGREE 3.1K DISAGREE



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Baltimore Orioles (+184.0) at Houston Astros (-184.0) over +8.0

Game time: Saturday 5/27, 7:15 PM

Baltimore Orioles 2 FINAL
Houston Astros 5  view game

Over (+8.0) L

$150.00 Pick documented: Saturday, 27 May 2017 5:37 PM

pick locked in about 1 month ago




AGREE 2.16K DISAGREE



Fire
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New York Mets (+130.0) at Pittsburgh Pirates (-130.0) over +8.5

Game time: Saturday 5/27, 7:15 PM

New York Mets 4 FINAL
Pittsburgh Pirates 5  view game

Over (+8.5) WIN WIN WIN Ticket Cashes $500.00

$250.00 Pick documented: Saturday, 27 May 2017 10:10 AM

pick locked in about 1 month ago




AGREE 1.79K DISAGREE



Fire
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New York Mets (+130.0) at Pittsburgh Pirates (-130.0) over +8.5

Game time: Saturday 5/27, 7:15 PM

New York Mets 4 FINAL
Pittsburgh Pirates 5  view game

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline (-116.0) WIN WIN WIN Ticket Cashes $279.31

$150.00 Pick documented: Saturday, 27 May 2017 9:28 AM

Under (+8.0) L

$150.00 Pick documented: Saturday, 27 May 2017 9:28 AM

pick locked in about 1 month ago




This was an easy bet to make even before Houston played Thursday night, and that game against the Tigers made this an even better bet. First off, when we look at a total of 9 runs and are looking for an "over," the ideal situation is that both teams would score four runs, making the game a push at absolute worst.

In this specific game we have an Astros team that appears to be hitting (literally) on all cylinders, except for their bullpen. Although they're back hasn't been horrible, it is in its worst form of the season, as well as used. Above is the pitch count for the Astros' bullpen over the last three nights.

And last night, Gregerson blew a save before Giles had to finish the game. Starting the game for Houston is Joe Musgrove, who has a WHIP of 1.55 (not very good) and who hasn't thrown more than six inning this season. That brings the aforementioned bullpen into play sooner rather than later.

Baltimore sends out Kevin Gausman, who has worse peripherals than Musgrove, but even more importantly threw 110 pitches last game, which for him is a lot. In fact, two starts back he threw 116, then the next start didn't make it out of the fourth inning at Kansas City. Against the Royals,...


It all starts under center, and I give you Josh McCown. He's now 37 years old, so good luck staying healthy. Even if he's 100%, the guy hasn't played more than 14 games in a season, ever. He hasn't played as many as 11 in over a decade, and basically played none for two years in Carolina. So, there's that.

For the Jets, it will be more of the same. If you can't score you can't win. Just opening at Buffalo and then flying to Oakland should start their season 0-2. Then they've got Miami and Jacksonville at home, and I'll give them one of those. Not both.

They'll probably lose at Cleveland, and I don't see another potential win until they get the Bills at home in November.

They'll be underdogs in every game thereafter, except perhaps at home against the Rams, who I am actually pretty high on. Even the season-ending game at New England is a loss, and often times those teams in that situation won't want to play (NE) if they've got the #1 seed, or can't benefit by winning. But I can tell you with certainty that the Jets are one team New England won't lay down for.

Their depth chart, aside from an aging Eric Decker, has Charone Peake and Quincy Enunwa as wide-receivers. That's...


AGREE 208K DISAGREE



Fire
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Baltimore Orioles (+130.0) at Houston Astros (-130.0) over +9.0

Game time: Friday 5/26, 8:10 PM

Baltimore Orioles 0 FINAL
Houston Astros 2  view game

Over (+9.5) L

$50.00 Pick documented: Friday, 26 May 2017 10:54 AM

pick locked in about 1 month ago

Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros Pick

In this game we have an Astros team that appears to be hitting (literally) on all cylinders, except for their bullpen. Although they're back hasn't been horrible, it is in its worst form of the season, as well as used.

And last night, Gregerson blew a save before Giles had to finish the game. Starting the game for Houston is Joe Musgrove, who has a WHIP of 1.55 (not very good) and who...

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It's not even the MLB All-Star break, and Week One NFL lines have been out for some time. There may be some value to betting early, and it's been my experience that in the first week one good angle is playing against playoff teams from the previous year playing non-playoff teams.

The first game that jumps off the board is the Falcons at Chicago. Everyone knows the Falcons lost the Super Bowl and the Bears are, well, the Bears. Opening day, getting +7 or more at home, is almost a bet you have to make. I would venture to guess that Atlanta will still be second guessing themselves and if by chance the Bears score first that could be the first public disaster of the season. In fact, Pinnacle will give you +104 to take the Falcons, whereas Sportsbook is going to charge you -105.

As many know, Pinnacle Sports tends to be the sharpest of them all, while Bovada and Sportsbook are generally great for underdogs. That's for no other reason than more pro bettors play at Pinnacle while the latter two would ban anyone that's generally beating the closing number. A great example is the very first game between Buffalo and the Jets. If you want to bet on Buffalo, obviously it would behoove you to have an account at Pinnacle and lay -6. Clearly 5Dimes and Sportsbook are offering MORE than -7, which is the second most important number after "3."

What many will do (or...


AGREE 1.76K DISAGREE



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Seattle Mariners (+127.0) at Washington Nationals (-127.0) over +9.5

Game time: Thursday 5/25,12:05 PM

Seattle Mariners 4 FINAL
Washington Nationals 2  view game

Seattle Mariners (+1.5) WIN WIN WIN Ticket Cashes $169.93

$100.00 Pick documented: Thursday, 25 May 2017 9:43 AM

pick locked in about 1 month ago




AGREE 11.4K DISAGREE



Fire
Vote Hot


Kansas City Royals (+186.0) at New York Yankees (-186.0) over +8.5

Game time: Wednesday 5/24, 7:05 PM

Kansas City Royals 0 FINAL
New York Yankees 3  view game

New York Yankees moneyline (-188.0) WIN WIN WIN Ticket Cashes $153.19

$100.00 Pick documented: Wednesday, 24 May 2017 5:05 PM

pick locked in about 1 month ago

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Pick

Bet a .5 unit here - that's what I'm counting it as. I know some don't mind and some do, so either don't bet it, or cut the "normal" bet in half. Yes, we're on the over, but there are not many scenarios where I can see Hammel and the Royals winning a lower scoring game, or a game that the Yankees don't score four runs, which if that happens we cannot lose them both.




AGREE 884 DISAGREE



Fire
Vote Hot


Detroit Tigers (+157.0) at Houston Astros (-157.0) over +9.0

Game time: Wednesday 5/24, 8:10 PM

Detroit Tigers 6 FINAL
Houston Astros 3  view game

Over (+9.0) Push Cashed Back $150.00

$150.00 Pick documented: Wednesday, 24 May 2017 11:08 AM

pick locked in about 1 month ago




We hear the term "steam" thrown around loosely, and we're going to take a closer look at what it is or what it could be. Steam is nothing more than a significant change in the market as a result of a lot of action on one side or the other. More often than not most all the books are hit with action at the same time, causing the screen to light up.

More often than not that is indeed syndicate money that is moving the line, but not always something you should be eager to follow. Often times syndicates will move a line in one direction, only to come back and bet the other side at a better number and for more money. It's call a set-up move. Here is a great example of one.

As you can see, around 8:00 AM they "hit" the Phillies in this example and forced the line from Philadelphia -117 up to -124 fairly quickly. Less than an hour later they threw even more money at it, moving it up to -132.

But, very quickly they came back with Colorado money, pushing it back down below what it originated at. That would be a classic set-up move. Now, that does not mean the Rockies are going to win the game, but there are many people that would see that Phillies steam and follow it at what would ultimately be a bad number.

One other thing...


AGREE 2.68K DISAGREE



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Detroit Tigers (+205.0) at Houston Astros (-205.0) over +8.5

Game time: Tuesday 5/23, 8:10 PM

Detroit Tigers 2 FINAL
Houston Astros 6  view game

Houston Astros moneyline (-226.0) WIN WIN WIN Ticket Cashes $108.19

$75.00 Pick documented: Tuesday, 23 May 2017 3:52 PM

pick locked in about 1 month ago




AGREE 1.82K DISAGREE



Fire
Vote Hot


Minnesota Twins (+117.0) at Baltimore Orioles (-117.0) over +9.5

Game time: Tuesday 5/23, 7:05 PM

Minnesota Twins 2 FINAL
Baltimore Orioles 0  view game

Minnesota Twins (+1.5) WIN WIN WIN Ticket Cashes $122.77

$75.00 Pick documented: Tuesday, 23 May 2017 3:51 PM

pick locked in about 1 month ago




AGREE 2.82K DISAGREE



Fire
Vote Hot


Kansas City Royals (+129.0) at New York Yankees (-129.0) over +8.5

Game time: Tuesday 5/23, 7:05 PM

Kansas City Royals 6 FINAL
New York Yankees 2  view game

Kansas City Royals (+1.5) WIN WIN WIN Ticket Cashes $125.68

$75.00 Pick documented: Tuesday, 23 May 2017 3:50 PM

pick locked in about 1 month ago




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